Google's take rate for apps making >1mm usd/year is 30% of revenue.
EDIT: previous title was "Google Play Store default rate for large apps <29% by 2030"
https://support.google.com/googleplay/android-developer/answer/112622?hl=en
If that number for US apps goes below 29% before March 1, 2030, then this market resolves true.
If the market structure changes so this interpretation isn't easy, we will use the effective take rate on the last dollar for the top 5 paid US apps at the time.
EDIT: The overall point is if the google play store 30% default fee monopoly is broken. There are lots of special deals, discounts, etc but the core rate is still 30% and that breaking clearly is what this is about.
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@Ernie ie imagine if you have an app where for every user dollar spent you profit 0.1$.
Goog and apple take 0.3$. if android cut the fee from 30% to 10%, you now make 3x as much profit. That's huge.
If a big app suddenly realized they made much more money on Android and took a position, are there any countries where that would be interesting?
The problem is, the balance is still holding. Apple has a smaller but much richer global market. apple and android collude to trap apps so that no large app could profit by going exclusive, or at least to just strongly favor one or the other ecosystem. And it's automatic. I do wonder if non-us based apps in majority android countries could push this. They could exclude iPhone users and also promote pro- android stuff, if goog would give them a rebate on the fee.
Probably unlikely since the end result of actual competition would be both apple and Google being forced to take a more reasonable low rate so they both know that any wavering might trigger a fee drop cascade
believe this is already the case since recurring revenue subscriptions get charged less than 30%:
https://techcrunch.com/2021/10/21/google-lowers-play-store-fees-to-15-on-subscriptions-apps-as-low-as-10-for-media-apps/
@PatMyron I read that page as saying the marginal rate for normal revenue is 30%. Subscriptions are a special case. I do want to make that clearer. I'm looking for the last dollar take rate, for a huge app, normal revenue.