Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035
12
แน1kแน2312035
50%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The group will be at least as big as a percentage of the US population as the NRA was in 2023. It's hard to specify their exact nature or policies but they will at least be 1) primarily focused on this one issue 2) be trying to promote ICE cars, block EV adoption, or something similar. Note if they are primarily focused on anti-self-driving, that does not qualify.
2023 NRA members: 4.3m
USA population 2023: 331.9m
Percent: 1.3%
So if the new organization has at least 0.13% of the US population before 2035, which today would be 430k people, this resolves yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?
13.3
EIA projection for U.S. PHEV market share in 2026?
EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?
Before 2032, how much will be spent lobbying against regulation of General AI systems? (2024$, best guess)
We will see a 100k person anti-AI protest before 2030
72% chance
When will EVs become cheaper to produce than ICE?
๐ When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?
There will be an anti-AI super PAC that raises at least $20 million in 2026
38% chance