The group will be at least as big as a percentage of the US population as the NRA was in 2023. It's hard to specify their exact nature or policies but they will at least be 1) primarily focused on this one issue 2) be trying to promote ICE cars, block EV adoption, or something similar. Note if they are primarily focused on anti-self-driving, that does not qualify.

2023 NRA members: 4.3m

USA population 2023: 331.9m

Percent: 1.3%

So if the new organization has at least 0.13% of the US population before 2035, which today would be 430k people, this resolves yes.