Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026
3
10kṀ1250
2026
46%
Not approved by the legislature
27%
Approved by the legislature but has not become law
27%
Has become law

The Responsible AI Safety and Education Act (RAISE Act) is a New York AI safety bill that requires AI developers to produce safety protocols to address the most severe risks (and then follow those protocols), and creates whistleblower protections for AI company employees.

This market will resolve based on the furthest stage the bill reaches by January 1, 2026. Possible outcomes include:

  • Not approved by the legislature

  • Approved by the legislature but did not become law (e.g. because the governor vetoed it)

  • Has become law

Substantial amendments to the bill (e.g. ones that significantly water it down) will not change the resolution of this market, unless the amendments are so substantial that it's a fundamentally different bill (as happened with TRAIGA in Texas). Sorry that this isn't a clear-cut resolution criterion -- I'll make judgments on a case-by-case basis, though I suspect that it won't end up being relevant.

Federal preemption is not relevant to the resolution of this market. For instance, if the governor signs the bill but federal preemption prevents it from taking effect, the market nevertheless resolves "Has become law".

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy