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MANIFOLD
How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be?
9
Ṁ1kṀ7.5k
2028
4%
Less than 1.5 months
89%
1.5 months to 4.5 months
5%
4.5 months to 8.5 months
1.5%
8.5 months to 14.5 months
0.6%
More than 14.5 months

After companies IPO, they typically have lock-up periods during which employees can't sell their stock. These lock-up periods are typically 3 or 6 months, though longer and shorter lock-up periods aren't unheard of.

How long will the lock-up period be for Anthropic?

For the purposes of this question, the lock-up period will be defined as the time period starting on the day of the IPO and ending on the day when Anthropic employees can sell stock (including shares that are in DAFs) that is collectively worth 5% of Anthropic's valuation.

If Anthropic doesn't IPO by end of 2027, this question will resolve N/A.

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

Someone better-informed than me says this should resolve to 1.5-4.5 months. I will resolve it that way unless someone comments in the next week.

bought Ṁ50 YES

I'm not confident, but I think this should resolve to "day 180" based on my understanding of the lockup structure and how Anthropic shares are distributed between cofounders and rank-and-file employees. But 1.5 to 4.5 months could be right.

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