Will Manifold return the funds they received from FTX Futures?

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Ṁ27K

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resolved Jun 6

Resolved

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According to https://manifold.markets/post/in-defense-of-sbf , Manifold received 1.5M USD from FTX Futures Fund as part of a seed investment. This market resolves true if either of the following occurs:

Manifold is ordered by Civil Court to pay back the 1.5M investment or whatever cash is remaining if they have less than 1.5M cash remaining
Manifold buys back equity owned by Alameda/FTX Futures via returning the unspent portion of the 1.5M investment

This market resolves automatically to NO if such an order or transaction has not taken place by May 31, 2023. My rationale being that they will have likely spent most of the cash by then.

Relevant links for discussion:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fraudulentconveyance.asp

Disclosure: Market creator owns equity in Manifold.

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predicted NO

This resolves No

So this resolves NO if there's a recovery of less than $1.5MM?

Timeframe is too short -- the court can order recovery out of any funds available to Manifold, not just these identifiable funds.

hope so but I doubt it'll happen. hoping to see that James stake change polarity.

I think there's a chance that Manifold buys back the ftx equity but no chance that the price would be based on the "unspent portion" of the original funds. How does this market resolve if it's just a regular share buyback because ftx creditors don't want to own shares in a startup?