Given many timelines place AGI somewhere before 2028 (the Metaculus mode is at 2026), the 2024 cycle might be the last chance to elect a president who can do something to stop or postpone it.
It also looks like a surprisingly fertile election for a third-party run:
Will someone actually try?
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves positively if a recognized AI X-Risk organization known for its commitment to mitigating the existential threats of artificial intelligence endorses a third-party presidential run, or a recognized AI X-Risk activist announces their intent to run for office.
I'm thinking "must have a Wikipedia page that links to or is linked from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence page" but I'm open to other suggestions.
The declaration must be official, public, and specifically aim at influencing AI policy
The declaration must occur before the Texas ballot application deadline on May 13, 2024. (Source: Ballotpedia)
1,000
3.00https://transhumanist-party.org/candidate-profiles/
Presidential run with language about the upcoming technological singularity. I wouldn't count these guys as "prominent" though and they are certainly nowhere on the Wikipedia page for X-Risk. Resolving this to "NO"
