Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?
10
150Ṁ248
2050
38%
chance
9

"The economy" is defined as the gross product of all human-initiated activities throughout the universe (if a human builds an AI that wipes out all humans but also builds a replicator ship to Proxima B and it builds stuff there, I'd count its activities on that planet as human-initiated).

"Size" means value, measured in some reasonable way.

Resolves in 2050 to allow some time for fact-finding

AI
Economics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Whatever measure you use, that would require sustained growth at 7.5% per year for the full 15 years. The highest global GDP growth rate (post WW2) was 6.6% in 1964 and that rate has been on a downwards trend since then. It would take something quite phenomenal to achieve this level of growth

@MattHutton Exactly correct. A large number of users here have short AI timelines

People are also trading

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?
Will GDP grow at more than 7% on average around 2030?
-8% 1d36% chance
Will US real GDP pc double by 2070?
+10% 1d86% chance
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
31% chance
Will US real GDP pc double by 2040?
53% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?
46% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
44% chance
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
63% chance
Will the US be the largest economy by nominal gdp in 2052?
52% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy