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MANIFOLD
Will we ever get the free M$500?
18
Ṁ109Ṁ1.8k
resolved Jun 26
Resolved
YES
This question resolves to Yes if we ever get the M$500 from filling out the survey. It resolves to No if we never do.
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predictedNO
Huh? I filled out the survey but still didn't get any. What happened?
@ScottLawrence Check the email in your spam filter.
predictedNO
@EnopoletusHarding Yup, that was it. Thanks!
predictedYES
I also didn't get any, don't have anything in my spam folder.
predictedYES
Do you intend to resolve this NO if we haven't received the M$500 by the close date? Or leave it unresolved until it is paid out?
The question title and text reads pretty clearly to me as the latter.
predictedNO
@jack Not sure. I will ask the admins in that case.
predictedNO
In any case, I've long had a bunch of markets where the resolve date and close date differed significantly. I don't have plans to extend the close date, but that may or may not change. IDK when the resolve date will be.
predictedYES
Right, my question is just about resolution, not the close date; that's what I expected.
wait if this market hits the close date presumably it’ll be extended
predictedNO
@Conflux That hasn't been my habit so far.
hedge
You will.
Haha, I see what you did there :)
@jack No, my probabilities are always honest.
On the other hand, this market might be useful as a hedge...
predictedYES
Oh, I was referring to "It resolves to No if we never do." This makes the market kind of interesting - it pays out YES when event X happens, but otherwise never pays out anything. It's kind of like the "This market resolves YES in 3 months" questions (which tests the implied interest rate) except the duration is unknown and possibly could never happen (although I think it will definitely happen in this case).
predictedYES
Actually, I guess you would probably resolve NO if there was an announcement that the surveys had all been lost and so we'd never be paid. So it's not quite the type of market I was thinking of - I should experiment with one of those, sounds like fun.

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