In the papal conclave, black smoke signals indicate that no candidate has secured the required two-thirds majority vote, while white smoke announces the election of a new Pope. This market predicts the total number of black smoke signals that will occur before the next Pope is elected. The resolution will be based on official reports from the Vatican and reputable news sources. For context on the conclave process and smoke signals, see AP News.
I reserve the option to close the market a few minutes or hours before the expected smoke (and reopen the market in case of a black smoke), to avoid someone betting after a white smoke.
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided specific details for the market pausing and reopening schedule on days of the conclave, except for the first day (which has a single ballot):
The market is planned to close at 10:00 a.m. local time. It will reopen around noon local time if there is a smoke signal.
The market is planned to close at 5:00 p.m. local time. It will reopen around 7:00 p.m. local time if there is a smoke signal.
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that this market's resolution will be determined by the events occurring within the first 17 ballots of the papal conclave.
If a Pope is elected during or before the 17th ballot, the market will resolve to the actual number of black smokes that occurred prior to the election.
If the 17th ballot concludes and no Pope has been elected (e.g., the 17th ballot results in black smoke), this market will resolve based on the situation at that point. For example, if 17 black smokes have occurred within these ballots, the market will resolve to 17 (or an equivalent '17 or more' category, if such an option exists for the market). The creator notes that a new market may be opened for events extending beyond these 17 ballots.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ30,248 | |
| 2 | Ṁ6,223 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,921 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2,466 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,003 |
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This market is out of line with /SteveSokolowski/how-many-ballots-will-be-cast-durin .
I tried to get it back in line but people keep betting irrationally. Feel free to have at it.
@SteveSokolowski as I understand, pope elected in 5th ballot = 2 black smokes
@Tulu I've already been able to put 2200M into NO for 2-3 on the other market and someone just bought 25M of YES again.
@bens that's not a guarantee though, they release smoke every session and normally a session has two ballots, but it could have less
@Odoacre right, I just meant, he might be thinking that they release smoke every ballot, which would definitely make other people's betting behavior seem irrational. Also, I think it's unlikely a session will have less than two sessions? When was the last time that happened?
@bens I think the other market is now back in line with reality, but it is not in line with this market.
The 10-11 estimate right now is correct. The 2005 election had a clear frontrunner. The 2013 election elected the runner-up from the previous election. Neither of these is true this time and there is an ideological divide.
why do people think there’s no chance of deadlock? There’s been at least 3 conclaves with 50+ ballots.
@Sketchy imho it's quite unlikely. Those long conclaves happened a long time ago in very different times. At the time the church was more than a spiritual structure (or even an economic one) it was a real world political organization with territory and real influence over other nations. Now it's a bunch of dudes with fancy clothes.
@Odoacre fair. I have trouble believing that the polarization trend magically doesnt affect cardinals, though, and 2/3rds is a high bar.
@Sketchy another important thing is in the worst case they can always compromise out of a deadlock by electing some 89 year old and hoping he is too feeble to do anything much, or even better dies soon
@Odoacre it’s mostly the delta between Western and non-western that I think is likely to cause a deadlock although that does correlate with left and right.
I haven’t given much thought to my odds other than 3% feels low, but I wouldn’t put it above 10% for sure.
@Odoacre well, not quite 89, but John XXIII and to some extent Benedict XVI had been largely elected as "transition popes" and yet
@Odoacre The church does have a massive economic operation. In fact, the core issue facing the cardinals right now is that the church is in unbelievable debt - $2 billion. It's the richest organization in the world, with 10000+ priceless artifacts, and they can't sell anything to raise revenue.
They were keeping records on pen and paper. When Francis hired a modern auditing firm to create a computer system to track why they were in debt, a cardinal withdrew $500,000 in hundred dollar bills and hid them in duffel bags, until the Pope found out years later and told him to pay the church back.
They are cutting pensions, firing employees, reducing benefits saying that bishops should live frugally, and it's not enough.
Being the pope is like being the CEO of a major organization. Yes, he prays at Masses and serves as a figurehead, but much of his day is spent doing office work and politics.
@SteveSokolowski I think you are misinformed, there's no real risk of a catholic church bankruptcy, at least globally IMHO, maybe make a market about it ?
@Odoacre Yeah, I don't think they're going to try that strategy again this time around -- they should have realized by now that (unless they're really blatant like literally a 89-year-old) there are good chances that it would end up being a "transition pope" in a much more literal sense than they mean
@Odoacre The delta between left and right electors themselves is pretty high. But the delta between those electors’ appetite for a moderate, compromise candidate is quite low.
@Sketchy This market covers up to 17 ballots. On Sunday, if there is still no white smoke, a new market could be opened for more specific options (perhaps even for single black smoke and not in pairs). If someone wants to open it already now, I have no problem.
@Odoacre there seems a lot of room between bankruptcy and having to make tough decisions. I'm sure they could sell off items from the Vatican museum or archives or even prime real estate, but even as an atheist I would find it sad to see the Vatican museum or the archives get stripped for parts.
@AlexanderTheGreater Like many large universities, the Catholic church has become entrenched with a huge number of bureaucrats in various departments who prefer the status quo.
Unlike universities that are funded by taxpayer dollars, they can't just keep raising taxes to pay for it.
Francis's eventual solution was to cut everything he could, and then ask people to donate more. He simply died before he could make the speech about the financial troubles and why laypeople should chip in. But in the end, his solution was the same as everywhere else - just raise taxes on the people you serve rather than cut costs even more.