
Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?
8
180Ṁ5382500
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
Another pope uses the papal name Peter
8%
A female pope is elected
6%
The papacy is abolished (see description)
80%
None of the above happens by 2500
I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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