Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?
6
180Ṁ458
2500
5%
Another pope uses the papal name Peter
11%
A female pope is elected
7%
The papacy is abolished (see description)
77%
None of the above happens by 2500

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

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How would this market define who the real pope is if a major schism occurs? (Which is far far more likely than a female pope of an unambiguous sucseor to today's catholic church)

@DavidOman With the tension between the tradcaths and progcaths this is not unthinkable. If you see how much tension the blessing of gay couples causes ...

In that case ... Pope Boniface IX would be cool 🤣

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