Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump orders active-duty military personnel to NYC by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House, Department of Defense, or credible news reports confirming an active-duty military deployment order to New York City. The order must be issued by Trump and must specifically authorize active-duty forces (not National Guard under state control). Deployment of National Guard troops federalized under presidential authority counts as active-duty for this purpose.

Background

During Trump's second presidency in 2025, federal government forces, primarily National Guard troops, have been deployed in select US cities, with Trump giving multiple explanations for the deployments as crackdowns on protests, crime, homelessness, and illegal immigration. Trump has consistently threatened to take similar action in New York City. Trump has threatened future military interventions in several cities, including New York. In September 2025, federal courts ruled that the administration had illegally sent troops into Los Angeles in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act.

Considerations

The actions have sparked significant controversy, with critics labeling them as abuses of power and potential violations of the Posse Comitatus Act, which limits military involvement in domestic law enforcement. Gun violence and major crime are at record lows in New York City, with fewer shootings in the first nine months of 2025 than in any prior year. Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act if he wanted to federalize the National Guard in New York or other states.