Will there be an attempted assassination of any US presidential candidate in 2023?
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650Ṁ3899resolved Jan 1
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Resolves yes if mainstream media reports an assassination attempt. Only active Democrat & GOP candidates with >=1% in polls or a debate appearance count.
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Quick attempted base rate calculation
Theodore Roosevelt attempt (Oct-1912)
Ambiguous: JFK assassination (Nov-1963) (Wiki: "Kennedy also viewed the Texas trip as an informal launch of his 1964 reelection campaign")
RFK assassination (Jun-1968)
George Wallace attempt (May-1972)
Gerald Ford attempts x2 (Sep-1975); Ford had announced his candidacy for 1976 election in Jul-75
(sort of) upper bound — inc. JFK, 5 attempts in the last 60 years = ~8.3%/year
(sort of) lower bound — exc. JFK and since Roosevelt, 5 attempts in 111 years = ~4.5%/year
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