I see a lot of users (including me) are trying various ways to gain additional interest on our mana. This seems to be a direct contradiction of the community guidelines, specifically the second bullet point:
Users don’t take advantage of bonuses and other free mana sources we provide.
Will any users be punished (a little or a lot) for interest rate schemes before the end of the month? Just getting a 'verbal reprimand' won't count. Changing the criteria for interest/loans so this is no longer effective won't count. Someone has to get fined, banned, lose privileges, etc.
1,000🏅 Top traders
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@SG I apologize for my misuse of the interest system. I was having fun, and made very little Mana. I do like the idea as it incentives users to use their Mana, rather than let it sit dormant. Maybe there is a way to revamp it, so it only applies to trades made on markets that resolve Yes or No, not 50%.
I will not abuse the system any more.
@HillaryClinton If we can convince them to bring back some form of interest, which version are you more interested in:
"Interest on everything" AKA the Evan Plan (balances, AMMs, positions, all of it earns interest everywhere)
"Blessed Interest Markets" more like how Cash markets worked, only select markets chosen by Manifold would be eligible for interest (narrower scope than 'Ranked')
"Actually markets about atomic number are cool" just explicitly allow the goofy markets and roll with it as a new normal procedure, users work together to get their capital in and out of these while monitoring their open limit orders
@HillaryClinton @SG if we have an official manifold permanent interest vault set up, then we have no need to set up these questions. Even without these 50-50 questions you can always find some basically “resolved” markets to park mana such as the spx up 100% market or the Milky Way market for interest rates. An official interest parking system would deal with this problem though, and you can offer a much lower interest rate (1%). This way you can still encourage people to bet on longer term markets to receive higher interest but they have to keep their bets for at least a year or something in order to receive the interest.
@Eliza sorry just saw you already had suggestion in this thread, I think all 3 options are great! The goofy market especially would be hilarious if it doesn’t resolve 50-50 due to unlikely events, for example they actually change the standard for swimming pool length or something.
@Eliza I kind of liked how the goofy markets created activity, but I can understand how that may be very confusing to new users. I think the point is to incentivize users to bet, vs just sit on idle Mana right? or am I missing something?
I would lean towards allowing the goofy markets, but requiring them be unranked (and not on the main page new users see), and giving interest on unranked markets. This way they don't confuse new users, but all users are incentivized to bet Mana and keep the site active.
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@HillaryClinton I agree, why is it not realistic to explore possibilities in chemistry where an element receives a new atomic number?
@Mochi You're right, but now we legitimately got a system banned that I kind of liked. Would make my multiyear markets much more profitable.
Gotta compromise now.
@Mochi I was outraged by the fugazi accusations against the tin market, so I found this paper that calculated the natural abundance of its only naturally found radioactive isotope (tin-126) on Earth. Given that its half-life is 2.3*10^5 years, we can conclude that 3*10^(-18)% to 3*10^(-19)% of tin atoms decay by beta-minus and gain a proton to turn into antimony-126 after a year, exactly as a commenter in that market had proposed.
Now, to forecast a new atomic number that accurately represents the average number of protons we can expect tin to have in the future, we also have to take into consideration that antimony-126 is also radioactive by beta-minus decay, turning another neutron into a proton, in addition to having many metastable nuclear isomers that decay by isomeric transition, delaying the transition to tellurium-126. Additionally, we can't forget that tin-126 will be replenished by the spontaneous fission of heavy elements like uranium-238.
I was hoping that the rest of the tinfoil community would help me with that, but unfortunately, Manifold is not open to markets that push forward groundbreaking research with practical applications.
@JeromeHPowell I guess you can always buy a huge amount of No in this ranked market if you don't think the 2.25 employees will take any action in the next 2 weeks.
@GleamingRhino It has to be a new instance of punishment since this market was created, and also directly related to interest payments as noted in the description.