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So the race organizer is claiming they hooked him for a prep race before Gravel Worlds European Gravel Championships. We'll see if it ACTUALLY comes to pass or not.

@PelotonEliza but Gravel Worlds is not classified as "road race", right? So it would go against the odds of this market resolving YES

@egroj Circuit Franco-Belge is a 1.Pro race. it would count. The race organizer is claiming he is attending. But on further examination they claim he is attending the 1.Pro race on 28 September in advance of the EUROPEAN Gravel championships on 1 October. Which is also in Belgium.

https://www.dhnet.be/sports/cyclisme/2023/08/23/le-champion-du-monde-mathieu-van-der-poel-sera-present-au-circuit-franco-belge-O3OETFIPFNA3HJGMTOSPADPOY4/

At least one source is reporting that MVDP will ride Circuit Franco-Belge at the end of September. Mads Pedersen also raced this race in 2019 as his first race in the rainbow jersey so it has a history of attracting the new world champion.

He does not rule it out and wants to continue riding as of now:

https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/verlengt-mathieu-van-der-poel-wegseizoen-moet-toch-trainen-voor-testevent-op-mtb/

crashing out of the MTB XCO WC doesn't help this i think

@Checktaschu Related question:

yes, even if it will just be like remco last year, one race where he DNFs early

@Checktaschu I would consider this a higher probability if there were more races in the Netherlands, but there are no more races there. I still think it more likely than not (over 50%), just not 70% probability

For one day races: There are still 11 1.1 or 1.Pro races in Belgium remaining this year, and 12 Italian 1.1 or 1.Pro races. Plus five 1.WT races, at least three of which he would theoretically be competitive in.

For stage races: He's previously participated in several 2.Pro and 2.WT races that are still to come -- and has been a former winner of both Tour of Britain and Renewi Tour.

So, plenty of chances but also nothing earth-shattering that he would "need" to win.

Why is this so high? Last year after the World Championships he only participated (and did not finish) one race in October: https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/mathieu-van-der-poel/2022

Plus, this year is very different, now he will focus on MTB: he wants to compete next year in the Olympic games (and win). He is participating in the MTB World Championship to gain a spot in the Olympics, it is likely that he will (has to place around top 20) and if he does probably he wants to participate in more MTB events to train for the Olympics. He has confirmed all of this (sorry link is in Spanish): https://esmtb.com/mathieu-van-der-poel-rebaja-las-expectativas-no-voy-en-mtb-desde-el-ano-pasado/

Mathieu van der Poel rebaja las expectativas: "no voy en MTB desde el año pasado"

Mathieu van der Poel afronta el Mundial de XCO con una idea clara: lograr la clasificación para los JJOO de París 2024

@egroj It's a good question, here are some reasons people might think the answer is yes:

1. It is something of a habit for WC winners to add a race to their schedule late. Some race organizers may be offering a special incentive to do so. (MVDP is no stranger to being incentivized to join a race, this is a very common practice in cyclocross.)

2022: Remco Evenepoel added a Belgian 1.1 race to his schedule after Worlds that he was not going to race otherwise, 108th place finish
2020-2021: Alaphilippe already had real target races post-Worlds
2019: Mads Pedersen joined 3 races post-Worlds, all DNF
2018: Valverde was already going to race in Italy post-Worlds
2015-2017: Sagan raced 1 race post-Worlds in 2015 but did not race after Worlds in 2016 and 2017 as a repeat champ.
2014: Kwiatkowski raced after Worlds
2013: Costa raced after Worlds
2012: Gilbert raced after Worlds
2011: Cavendish raced after Worlds
2010: Hushovd raced after Worlds
2009 and before: Still very, very common.....

So the only times in the last decade or more where a WC did not race later in the same year were when Sagan won his 2nd and 3rd consecutive WCs. There's a relatively high base rate.

2. There is a lot of time left in the season. It is not late September right now but early August. That means there are even more races left who might be trying to get him to come.

3. The UCI Gravel World Championships will be in Veneto in early October and there are races both before and after that date in Italy that he could attend. Last year he raced and DNF'd at Giro del Veneto, for example. It's not a guarantee that he attends the UCI Gravel World Championships but it is somewhat likely considering he placed 3rd last year.

4. The defining feature of MVDP is he is a creature of impulse. If he decides he wants to do something, he will do it. If he decides not to, he won't. And he can change his mind.

5. I feel like someone asked him and he said something like 'maybe' but I can't find the exact interview/quote.

@PelotonEliza just to be clear, if he races gravel that does not count for resolution, only if it is a road event, right?

@egroj Correct! Has to be a road event, UCI sanctioned, where he would presumably wear the rainbow jersey. A non-UCI road event, kermesse, etc., would not count.