Will Manifold Reach 10500 Monthly Active Users in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats

Resolves "YES" if Manifold reaches 10500 monthly active users at any point in 2023

Resolves "NO" otherwise
Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public


This market is a child of /AmmonLam/will-manifold-reach-10600-monthly-a

The August spike resulted in the creation of several 10x00 markets in a frenzy of new user activity. In the end, the 10400 market resolved Yes and a 10500 in August market resolved No, so I have now duplicated this one for 10500 in 2023, which was curiously missing the whole time.

We already hit the 10400 milestone, so 10500 is the next frontier! Then the other ones can kick in.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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@chrisjbillington Any fear that 1000 market creators who got a closed market notification in the last half-day are going to come online and RUIN your day?

bought Ṁ3,000 NO from 0.4% to 0.3%

@Eliza So you're saying there's a (0.3) chance (that it already happened in the past).

bought Ṁ3,000 of NO

@Eliza I'll go lower if you think you'll resolve it soon :)

@chrisjbillington 23 minutes and counting!

bought Ṁ3,000 NO at 0.3%
bought Ṁ4,494 of NO


Just me and the big dogs hanging out in the failed MAU market.

I am trying to update the closing date on this market to match midnight "Manifold Time".

My understanding is the stats page in its normal schedule would update three times before the close date of this market, but I do not plan to resolve it until after it closes -- it's always possible the figure updates on a different schedule for some reason. Any figure appearing on the stats page after the market closes would not count. Only figures appearing before.

predicted YES

Hmm... what would make it look like not only was the video not enough, but the rest of the year was donezo too...

bought Ṁ6,824 of NO

@Panfilo Sam Altman surge starts falling out of the 30-day window now, so gonna be a bit of a drop over the next few days. Not impossible something will happen to cause another surge big enough to make up for it, but not seeming likely.

Are you all buying Yes due to the YouTube video promoting Manifold recently?

predicted YES

Okay Chris is telling us “Yes the Rational Animations referrals are helping, but not that much”

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@Panfilo they have increased numbers decently, but the rate of increase is slowing fast, so not looking likely to threaten any of the thresholds for these markets. And in about 48h new users from the Sam Altman surge start to fall out of the window, so even if Rational Animations traffic settles to some lower but more sustained rate of new users over the next week, it's unlikely to make up for the lost Sam Altman users.

I'd bet this lower, but I'm still fairly concerned for my holdings here if Manifold gets a Time magazine article by end of year. So my NO bets in these markets just now are hedged with matched YES bets in the Time magazine markets, the gap with which limits how much I'll bet these markets down.

@chrisjbillington LOL, didn't realize Panfilo wrote a comment at the same time as me.

FWIW, I think TIME publish in 2023 is overpriced, Panfilo's reasoning from earlier today seems solid.

bought Ṁ150 NO

@saulmunn hedging

predicted YES

Three consecutive Yes trades, it's happening.

Okay, now, all you Yes holders, it's time to get active, get the word out there, and use the next 25 days to gather an extra 1000 signups and get them to V O T E!!! You can make whatever kinds of super cool, very attractive markets you can think of. Just get people to click in and vote. We can do it!