Will Manifold Reach 10600 Monthly Active Users in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats

Resolves "YES" if Manifold reaches 10600 monthly active users at any point in 2023

Resolves "NO" otherwise
Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public

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Good job Chris.

predicted NO

@Eliza 🥳

@AmmonLam Which time zone?

predicted NO

@Eliza the one used by the stats page! I think it's PDT currently, and the stats page updates about 45 minutes later. So 11:45PM PST ish is when this can resolve.

Make that @Eliza. Typing too fast for Manifold tags again

@Eliza Focus group of 3 NYT readers right here free of charge. Also who doesn't have an opinion on Flo?


predicted YES

confused pikachu

@TheBayesian There's some discussion earlier of NYT effect. I joined due to NYT so have opinions. Guess would have been less confusing to respond there. This nested comments format is for the birds. I blame Zuck. He popularized it.

predicted YES

@ClubmasterTransparent There’s only 1 nesting layer right, which is common and probably wasn’t invented by zuck? Idk could be wrong

@TheBayesian I doubt he invented but once he used it for FB it started showing up all over the place.

@TheBayesian Actually come to think of it you're right, I just reflexively blame Zuck when I'm frustrated.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ25 of YES

Hope everyone's buying Yes in anticipation of that TIME magazine bump, any day now! A quick 500 sign-ups and we'll be right on the cusp.

predicted YES

@Eliza Rules for participating in Manifold Users markets:

1. Never, ever bet against Chris

2. Never bet the same thing Chris just bet, because he already set it to the right percentage

3. The only valid pattern is to bet immediately before Chris bets, in the same direction.

4. If you only care about vibes and not making mana, buy Yes at all times.

4 traders bought Ṁ585 YES
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@Eliza I just pulled off the steal of the century. Now, about finding those extra 1000 users....

bought Ṁ70 of YES

@Eliza I'll be honest, it looks like I'm reasonably likely to lose about Ṁ50k in this and related markets if a Time Magazine article comes out within the next three weeks or so [1]. I've made a stupendous amount of profit recently so I'll still be well up and this is good advice generally, but perhaps occasionally, sometimes, bet against Chris. Especially if he's trying to sell his NO shares here, that would be very handy thank you. Very good advice follow please yes.

[1] unless it has much less of a splash than Time readership numbers imply it might, compared to the NYT, or unless the article being mostly about manifold.love means it doesn't translate into active users here - whilst manifold.love signups do count as manifold.markets signups, they don't count as active users unless they comment/bet/create a market, so I could get lucky.

predicted YES

Here's another way to bet on a TIME bump, with (currently) more leverage


I just want to say I was lucky enough to participate on this market back when it only had 12 traders. This was one of the very first markets I ever bet on outside my regular niche topic and it has a special place in my heart. Nothing would make me more happy than to see it resolve Yes by the end of the year.

The August spike resulted in the creation of several 10x00 markets in a frenzy of new user activity. In the end, the 10400 market resolved Yes and a 10500 in August market resolved No, so I have now duplicated this one for 10500 in 2023, which was curiously missing the whole time:



@Eliza 10500 let's go!

bought Ṁ40 of YES

Could someone explain to a simpleton like me why this is at 10%? It’s gone up by 4000 MAU in the last month

predicted YES

@flexadecimal You can look at the daily users and see which days are included in the set. There’s a big daily spike around the 7th? Which will soon be excluded.

If that contained a bunch of 1 stop users, it could drop by 1k just in the day following that.

bought Ṁ400 of NO

@Gen Now you've gone and done it!

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington And yet I buy yes anyway 😎

predicted YES

Thanks @Gen Still, surely some of those are not one stop users. And the likelihood of another bigger spike before EOY seems >10%…

predicted NO

Bit of a jump up tody

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Perhaps due to the debates that happened earlier?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Think so, yes. There were two surges though, not sure which was the debates and don't know what the cause of the other one was (times axis in PDT below, even though CA is now in PST)