tl;dr: The new rule about leagues counting profit on your own market after 1 hour is going to create a lot of super duper ambiguous situations where a market creator is, or is not, intentionally "manipulating" leagues. This rule needs some adjustment before being used for real.
This is kinda just a joking around market because I was sad that @deagol felt bad about how his (extremely successful!) stunt about leagues profit turned out. Honestly, if it requires a stunt to get something 'fixed', then it requires a stunt!
This market is about whether @ian will bail me out. I just established a one-sided position in my own market that only affects league profit, not actual profit.
While it appears I bought a huge Yes position, these were entirely filling a No limit order from before the 1 hour mark. So none of them actually established any position:
The market will resolve in like 3 days so I'll either get ~25k of league profit if it resolves Yes, or Negative 35k of league profit if it resolves No.
@ian can choose whether I suffer the penalty or gain the riches of league profit, we can always cancel it by unranking the market or just N/Aing it. Or he can make me accept the results.
Resolves Yes if Tadej Pogacar loses the European Championship race, but I do not get the big negative league profit as a result. Resolves No in all other cases.
Obviously, if market creators can establish either positions that set up the market to an initial probability OR limit orders immediately after opening a market....then trading those back the other way after 1 hour will create weird one sided positions. This is even easier to 'game' than the monthly league window.
It is totally legitimate to set up a market and immediately trade in it and/or set up limit orders. Because the system does not allow you to pre-set the probability in most cases.
1,000Obviously the exact thing I did here, intentionally trading around the window, is against the spirit of any guidelines/rules and should not be allowed. But it is much more likely that just regular site usage will lead to asymmetric (league) positions like this. It can be hard to distinguish accidental from intentional in most cases.
In the case where I made a limit order to do some shenanigans, you could rewrite the code so it is fills-aware instead of just bet-aware. Filter the bets based on the time of the fill rather than the time of the bet. That means I can make a market and place limit orders immediately, and the ones that fill (from anyone, not myself) after more than 1 hour will count for leagues.
That still doesn't help for "User creates market with obviously wrong probabilities then corrects them after 1 hour". In the robust economy you'd hope for, this would be 'fixed' by traders attacking every new market, etc. Reality is we don't have that many active users so many markets are created and no one does much at first. Of course, doing this intentionally would be against the guidelines but a creator with many markets could easily accumulate a lot of profit just with this strategy.
You or anyone won't like to hear it but, of course, if you filtered bets based on fills you could allow only profits on your own markets that were directly filled by another user. So if you place maker orders and someone else fills them, those count for leagues. If you fill someone else's order, that counts. If you bet against your own AMM or your own limit order, it doesn't count. You no longer need a 1 hour cooldown.