In AT LEAST how many more Grand Sumo Tournaments (basho) will Terunofuji participate in at least one match? (after 2023)
Basic
5
Ṁ13k2031
65%
5
38%
6
20%
7
14%
8
Resolved
YES1
Resolved
YES2
Resolved
YES3
Resolved
YES4
This is a CUMULATIVE probability market.
Terunofuji must enter the ring in the tournament for a match. If the opponent does not enter (fusen), it still counts.
You bet any number up if you think he will participate in AT LEAST that many. So if you think he will participate in exactly 3, you should bet Yes on 1, 2, and 3.
If you think he will participate in exactly 0, bet No on every option.
Resolves Yes to any number as soon as he participates in that tournament. All other answers resolve No when he retires.
The first eligible tournament will be January 2024.
I will add more answers on request or if the largest answer seems quite likely.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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