Conditional on Sam NOT coming back, what percentage of OpenAI staff will resign by 2024?
21
1.3kṀ1555
resolved Jan 1
ResolvedN/A
21%
<10%
29%
10 - 29%
12%
30 - 49%
12%
50 - 69%
16%
70 - 90%
7%
>90%
4%
OpenAI will be shut down.

Conditional market. If Sam returns to OpenAI (in an executive role), this market resolves to N/A.

OpenAI employees have threatened to maybe leave the company in response to recent events.

Notably, signing the open letter doesn't commit one to leave. The text reads "We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAl and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman."

If Sam doesn't come back, what percentage of OpenAI's employees (everyone who was working for the company on November 1, 2023) will actually leave the company?

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I will resolve this market when Sam is officially running things again.

@EliTyre Is he?

Does "rolled into microsoft" count as "shut down"?

I've been wondering a similar question on so many markets

@TomPotter Uh. I'm not sure. I think it would depend on the details.

You're imagining that the legal entity is made a subsidiary of microsoft? I don't think that that's a legal thing to happen to a 501c3?

Interesting to consider the bimodal nature of the market at present. I don't know if I disagree.

@JPAddison Yeah. I think most people won't have the initiative (or even an obvious reason) to leave, if most people are staying.

And also, I think most people won't have the initiative to stay, if most people are leaving, especially after signing the letter.

In this morally charged environment, it's scary to deviate from the pack.

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