Banned and inactive account. Unclear criteria. Resolves N/A.

I guess the Manifold moderator is on holiday. This question is meaningless in about 6 different ways

So what is the judging criteria?

There seem to be three things here

1. The O'Leary refinery will fail.

2. The world will realize 90% of the oil in the world is fake and tar condensate aren't oil, and

3. capitalism will collapse from peak oil.

If for example 1 happens but 2 and/or 3 does not which way is the claim judged?

Furthermore, I am not even sure what 1 means. Is a) not getting finance or permit by end of 2026 a 'fail', or does b) it have to be built and then fail to produce usable product or c) start production but go bust or d) something else defines 'fail'

If traders can't figure out what events matter how do you expect anyone to decide to trade?