Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Moscow Time (UTC+3), Wikipedia (wikipedia.org or its Russian-language subdomain ru.wikipedia.org) is officially blocked or banned by the Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor), and remains generally inaccessible to internet users in Russia without the use of a VPN or other circumvention tools.

The market will resolve to NO if Wikipedia is officially unblocked and generally accessible to the public in Russia without a VPN at the cutoff time.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Temporary outages: Brief technical glitches, short-lived censorship tests, or temporary blocks that are fully lifted before December 31, 2026, will resolve the market to NO. The block must be active and ongoing at the end of the year to qualify for a YES resolution.

• Partial blocks: If only specific individual Wikipedia articles are blocked, but the main domain (wikipedia.org) remains accessible to Russian users, this market will resolve to NO.

Sources for verification:

• Reports from independent censorship and internet monitoring platforms such as NetBlocks or OONI Explorer.

• Official announcements from Roskomnadzor (https://rkn.gov.ru).

• Coverage from major reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Meduza, or The Moscow Times).

Background

Russian authorities have threatened to block Wikipedia for years, levying numerous fines against the Wikimedia Foundation for refusing to remove articles related to the invasion of Ukraine. To pave the way for a potential ban, the Russian government has actively promoted state-approved domestic alternatives, such as "Ruwiki" (which launched in 2023 by copying Wikipedia's database and modifying sensitive content).

While officials historically hesitated to block Wikipedia due to the "sharp discomfort" it would cause users, pressure has steadily escalated. In August 2026, Russian users experienced a widespread, unexplained 8-hour outage of Wikipedia. Network monitoring data from OONI recorded a 100% connection anomaly rate during the disruption, leading internet freedom experts to speculate that the state may be testing the technical infrastructure required for a permanent, national-level block.