Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) officially blocks Gmail (including its primary domain mail.google.com or gmail.com) nationwide, or if a nationwide technical block of the service by Russian authorities is verified by credible sources to have lasted for at least 72 consecutive hours.
The block can be verified via:
Official listings in the Roskomnadzor registry (verifiable via the official RKN blocklist search or EAIS RKN).
Reports from reputable international tech or news organizations (such as Reuters, The Moscow Times, Mediazona, or TechRadar) confirming that Russian internet service providers (ISPs) are actively blocking Gmail traffic using TSPU (Technical Means of Countering Threats) DPI equipment.
Edge Cases & Clarifications:
Infrastructure outages: General global or regional technical outages originating from Google's own infrastructure do not count as a block.
Incidental blocks: Temporary, accidental blocks resulting from broader IP-blocking actions aimed at unrelated services (e.g., past collateral blocks targeting Telegram) will not trigger a YES unless the block specifically targets Gmail domains and remains active for at least 72 consecutive hours.
VPN accessibility: If the service is blocked on domestic connections but remains accessible inside Russia strictly via VPNs, Tor, or proxy services, the market will still resolve to YES.
If no official block or persistent nationwide technical block is enacted or verified by the deadline, this market will resolve to NO.
Background
Russian authorities have steadily escalated internet censorship, implementing deep packet inspection (DPI) hardware via TSPUs under "Sovereign Internet" laws. While some lawmakers have signaled caution regarding a total ban on Google due to Russia's heavy reliance on the Android operating system, legal pressures continue to build. These pressures include strict localization laws requiring foreign communication platforms to store Russian user data domestically, alongside massive unpaid fines levied against Google by Russian courts.
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1,000These sort of things force everyone onto VPN's, and if somehow that doesn't work, the onion network. In the case of VPN's that you don't know if you can trust, then the internet gets slower and less secure for everyone.
I'm getting so bored in the UK of continually adding and removing a VPN from my iPhone as the government tampers more and more, the temptation to just leave it on is quite strong. If this leads to a security issue on a massive scale, like what happened with the ransomware wave a few years ago, although a very different mechanism, I'm going to want some government accountability.