Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the calendar year in which a nuclear explosive device is detonated by one state or non-state actor against another in an offensive military action for the first time since the 20th century. The market will only consider actual detonations, not threats or tests.

For resolution purposes:

• The nuclear device must be detonated with intent to harm another state or non-state actor

• Test detonations, even if provocative, do not count

• Accidental detonations do not count

• The device must be a nuclear explosive (fission or fusion bomb), not a radiological "dirty bomb"

• If no nuclear weapon is used offensively by 2100, the market will resolve to "After 2100

• Clarification March.09.2025. tactical nuclear weapons count.