What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected

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Netanyahu authorizes negotiators to enter detailed talks for ceasefire deal with Hamas

Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire framework President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework and ongoing conflict. @traders

Hamas leader claims Israel trying to avert ceasefire via ‘heinous massacres’ in Gaza

Trump says he was shot in the ear during rally; one attendee and shooter are dead

Florida judge dismisses the Trump classified documents case Judge Aileen Cannon handed down her decision on Monday in a big win for the former president. The Florida judge overseeing former President Donald Trump's classified documents case dismissed the indictment against him.

@traders Hamas denies it has withdrawn from hostage-truce talks after latest Israeli attacks

Trump selects Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate [image]

IDF reveals most of Hamas in Shejaia gone, families release new hostage photos

House Democrats circulate letter urging DNC not to rush Biden nomination House Democrats are circulating a drafted letter urging the Democratic National Committee to slow down the nomination process for President Joe Biden, which could begin as soon as Sunday. As of Tuesday, at least 19 Capitol Hill Democrats had come out publicly to urge Biden to bow out of the race, following his debate fumble against Donald Trump in June. Biden’s mission to rescue his campaign with a flood of public appearances is competing with the turbocharged energy of the Republican National Convention, days after the attempted Trump assassination.

@traders 2/3rds 👀 [image]Comment from @Predictor on the "Premium" market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n)

Biden Has Covid [image]

Jeffrey Katzenberg Tells Joe Biden That Donor Cash Is Drying Up As Concerns About POTUS’ Age Grow

Biden Drops Out. [tweet]

Deadly strike in Golan Heights raises fears of major escalation - CNN 07/27/2024

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war - WAPO

Top U.S. general in the Middle East as U.S. and Israel prepare for possible Iran attack -AXIOS

Blinken says Israel has agreed to US proposal to close remaining gaps on ceasefire deal and calls on Hamas to do the same -CNN

Netanyahu is unequivocal about ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas: ‘There’s not a deal in the making’

It's unclear how Sinwar's apparent killing could impact hostage negotiations, officials say From CNN's Eugenia Yosef and Jeremy Diamond

Harris concedes to Trump

White House believes Lebanon truce will put pressure on Hamas to negotiate for Gaza ceasefire, official says From CNN's Sam Fossum

Hamas and Israel ‘are talking seriously’ about a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, source says

Congress Has Certified Election Results : Trump 312 / Harris 226

Wars in Ukraine and Gaza: Trump said Russia’s war in Ukraine could “escalate” and that it is “much more complicated.” Trump also warned that if hostages being held in Gaza are not released by his inauguration, “all hell will break out” in the Middle East.

(Please read the description, since this potential ceasefire may overlap awaiting Trumps Inauguration and the 10 days required for Israel/Hamas criteria, as of now the only way this resolves to Israel/Hamas would be if the ceasefire continues and Trumps inauguration is delayed to a date after day 10 of the ceasefire) -- Israel and Hamas agree to Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, source says The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, a source briefed on the talks tells CNN. Under the deal, which is yet to be formally announced, Hamas and its allied militant groups are expected to release 33 hostages seized from Israel during the attacks of October 7, 2023. In return, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The agreement would deliver the first reprieve from war for the people of Gaza in more than a year, and only the second since the Israeli bombardment began. Once confirmed, it is expected that the deal will allow Palestinian civilians to return to northern Gaza and there would be a massive influx of humanitarian aid into the strip, where residents have long faced dire humanitarian conditions.

100%98.9%

Trump Re-elected

0.9%

Israel/Hamas Ceasefire

0.1%

Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire

0.1%

Biden Re-elected

What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected

This market only resolves 1 answer

Resolves YES To The Event That Occurs First

To Meet Re-Election:
- Biden must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.
- Trump must be voted by eligible US Voters and inaugurated.

To Meet Bilateral Ceasefire:
- Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas or Russia & Ukraine
- Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
- Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
- Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
MARKET EXTENDS UNTIL CONDITIONS MET

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Update 2025-14-01 (PST): - First Event Determination: To qualify as the first event, a bilateral ceasefire must last at least 10 calendar days. This duration must be fulfilled for the ceasefire to be considered as occurring first. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - First Event Determination: If a bilateral ceasefire overlaps with Trump's inauguration, the ceasefire must continue for at least 10 calendar days, and Trump's inauguration must be delayed to a date after the 10-day ceasefire to qualify it as the first event. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
- Ceasefire Initiation: It does not matter what phase or stage the ceasefire is in as long as it meets the description to initiate the start of the 10-day count.
- Rocket Fire:
- If a single rocket is fired, the 10-day counter resets.
- The rocket can be from either side (Israel or Hamas) or an outside party.
- Breaking the Ceasefire:
- A ceasefire can be broken by either Israel, Hamas, or an outside party issuing statements that legitimately break the ceasefire.
- If a non-Hamas group (e.g., PIJ) fires a rocket, it breaks the ceasefire as defined in the agreement or as deferred to statements from Israel and/or Hamas.