Since his death (4/11/2024), will it be revealed that O.J. Simpson murdered Nicole Brown or Ronald Goldman before 2025?
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56
220
2025
28%
chance

Resolves YES if reasonable evidence is exposed that CLEARLY indicates that he DID murder either his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson or her friend Ronald Goldman.

Resolves NO if no reasonable evidence is exposed before Jan 1, 2025.

For context about the O.J. Simpson Trial:

The People of the State of California v. Orenthal James Simpson was a criminal trial in Los Angeles County Superior Court starting in 1994, in which O. J. Simpson, a former National Football League (NFL) player, broadcaster and actor, was tried and acquitted for the murders of his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson and her friend Ronald Goldman. The pair were stabbed to death outside Brown's condominium in the Brentwood neighborhood of Los Angeles on the night of June 12, 1994. The trial spanned eleven months, from November 9, 1994,[1] to October 3, 1995.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_trial_of_O._J._Simpson

FOR CLARIFICATION: What is 'reasonable evidence' will be determined by my assessment of what is discovered and revealed by mainstream sources, and their net credibility as assessed by their piers. If a credible news source DOES indicate that there is definitive new evidence indicating Simpson as the perpetrator, and additional credible news sources corroborate, this will be considered a resolution to YES. Regardless of the outcome, I will state my sources.

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@snazzlePop kind of INSANELY and wildly rude to use this post as shameless self promotion. wow.

@snazzlePop i rescind my previous statement... Don't worry, I'm just stupid. Carry on!

@EAParker

K. Related markets (and arbitrage opportunities) are routinely shared in comments. No rudeness was intended by my part.

bought Ṁ10 YES

What counts as "reasonable" evidence? My read on that situation is that there is plenty of evidence that he did, in fact, murder them - but the relevant evidence was disregarded by the court for various reasons.

@adele I will add a clarification to the question to the description - I meant it to read something to the effect of "will we find out, at some point after his death, that he DID REALLY DO IT?"

I would say you should resolve it yes already then.

@adele with what evidence? What was revealed that is new SINCE HE DIED?

sold Ṁ20 YES

My point is that it is clear that he did it from already existing evidence. If that doesn't count since it was available before his death, I think you should make that more clear.

@adele The market is entirely predicated on NEW EVIDENCE BEING REVEALED SINCE HIS DEATH. The market does not resolve with evidence that was available before his death. I have indicated the date of his death, and linked to the Wikipedia article so that we can all see what was available at the time of his trial, and throughout his life. I am not sure how to make this more clear. If you're not interested in utilizing this market, feel free to pass on it.

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