Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2024?
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resolved Sep 4
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YES

Introduction: For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.

This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2024, from the creation date of this question.

This will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.

(The perpetrator will not be counted as a victim.)

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I didnt want this to be true :'(

Can I give my coins back ? 😭

For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.

This is not true. The FBI does not publish mass shooting statistics. The confusions seems to originate from a report published by Mayors Against Illegal Guns in 2013. Although this report is hosted on a .gov website, it was not written by the FBI.

Various media outlets have created their own "mass shooting" databases, and typically define a mass shooting as 4 or more people, not including the perpetrator, killed or injured in a shooting event. Some outlets, such as the Washington Post, have separately started tracking "mass killing" defined as

The Washington Post tracks "mass killings with guns", which narrows the shootings down to incidents where 4 people, not including assailants, are killed by guns.

Of course, just because a newspaper defines "mass" to mean 4 or more, that doesn't necessarily fit the popular understanding of the word "mass". This Wikipedia article on "mass suicide" only include events in with dozens or hundreds are killed, not 4. Do you think the Washington Post would report the four employees being let go as a "mass layoff", or gathering of four people as a "mass protest"?

My market has had basically no decay all year.

so far so good !

Scanner is stating, at the least, 1 Dead and 3 with GSWs and suspect possibly dead. Awaiting for more information from Scanner traffic or LEO Statements.
Will update once I know more, if anything else comes across scanner traffic before LEO Statements Publicly.

predictedYES

Does not seem to meet criteria per update, could change, but this is similar to scanner info:

Does "four or more fatal victims" include the perpetrator?

predictedYES

@Jacy See the description, I think you missed the spoilers.

predictedYES

@Dynd Thanks. that didn't show up as a separate color in my browser. It may be better to just have it in normal text.

Before the end of 2024 or 2023?

@Dynd just wanted to make sure you really meant end of 2024

@Ap with 600 shootings a year in the USA, this is somewhat probable

predictedYES

@Ap Yes, 2024.

@Aizej There aren't that many. 2023 had 37 school shootings with any injuries or deaths, and only one of them met this market's criterion of four victims dead excluding the perpetrator. I agree it's fairly likely to happen again, but it's far from extremely probable.

https://www.edweek.org/leadership/school-shootings-this-year-how-many-and-where/2023/01

predictedYES

@Awaclus Thanks for the correction.
Still betting on yes.

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