Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2024?
77
474
1.1K
2025
43%
chance

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Kind of grim that I'm thinking about collecting data of all mass shootings with >20 fatalities, plotting them by time and finding the rate of the resulting Poisson point process to find the expected value of number of mass shootings over the 8.5 month interval from now to 1/1/25

@Dismalduck you might be interested in the comments starting with this one from last year's market:

https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-a-single-shooting-incident-kil#UuMVdwO6MbG57TDtxsKP

And this, which goes into more detail and is linked in that thread:

https://medium.com/@jembishop/predicting-the-probability-of-mass-shootings-with-extreme-value-theory-2be88e829da2

predicts NO

1000M limit for NO at 60% for one more day for anyone wanting a lot of yes (not going to hold that open once 2024 starts)

sold Ṁ52 of NO

Wild that this spiked at the same time the 2023 one spiked.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@DanPowell dang, wish I had gotten some of that cheap NO.

Anyway, put up 1K of NO limit at 50% for anyone interested...

The 2023 version of this settled at about 40-50% early in the year. Think people did some modelling.

Reckon these things are a bit of a social contagion so if it's happened recently probably more likely to happen next year.

Interested to see where this lands.

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