Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2024?
Basic
110
10k
2025
51%
chance

Introduction: For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.

This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2024, from the creation date of this question.

This will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.

(The perpetrator will not be counted as a victim.)

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My market has had basically no decay all year.

so far so good !

Scanner is stating, at the least, 1 Dead and 3 with GSWs and suspect possibly dead. Awaiting for more information from Scanner traffic or LEO Statements.
Will update once I know more, if anything else comes across scanner traffic before LEO Statements Publicly.

predicts YES

Does not seem to meet criteria per update, could change, but this is similar to scanner info:

Does "four or more fatal victims" include the perpetrator?

predicts YES

@Jacy See the description, I think you missed the spoilers.

predicts YES

@Dynd Thanks. that didn't show up as a separate color in my browser. It may be better to just have it in normal text.

Before the end of 2024 or 2023?

@Dynd just wanted to make sure you really meant end of 2024

@Ap with 600 shootings a year in the USA, this is somewhat probable

predicts YES

@Ap Yes, 2024.

@Aizej There aren't that many. 2023 had 37 school shootings with any injuries or deaths, and only one of them met this market's criterion of four victims dead excluding the perpetrator. I agree it's fairly likely to happen again, but it's far from extremely probable.

https://www.edweek.org/leadership/school-shootings-this-year-how-many-and-where/2023/01

predicts YES

@Awaclus Thanks for the correction.
Still betting on yes.

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