Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 10% in 2023?
101
1.3K
1.9K
resolved Sep 6
Resolved
YES

Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!

The Market in question:

If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 10% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO

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predicted YES

Great market 🤑. Will be looking to create my own like it!

This can be the first 😬

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e

Do we have faith that AI will resolve this correctly after our demise? Is there a chance AI resolves this market prematurely to hasten our demise?

predicted YES

Resolves YES

bought Ṁ15,000 of YES

We're ignoring invisible numbers after the decimal, right?

bought Ṁ610 of YES

@deagol I just took the 11% limit order guy's limit orders in another market and now his balance must be less than 6k. So some those 11% limit orders are going to be cancelled atm

(His balance currently shows 12k but should update in a few minutes)

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@firstuserhere 73612 wall break rn

predicted YES

@deagol Now down to 65,799.

predicted YES

@evergreenemily 51,524 now.

predicted YES

@LukeHanks 46,232 now.

bought Ṁ462 of YES

@LukeHanks 13,482

predicted YES

@deagol holy hell

bought Ṁ11 of YES

We've started eating the 11% wall on the linked market 👀.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Everyone's mana is tied up in floaty rock markets.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Does anyone have insight on what @Jelle is doing here? They are most of the NO here and also are most of the wall at 11% (42k) that this market refers to.

predicted YES

Seems fairly clear then? They're one of the people who for questionable reasons try to bid up the AI doom markets, and they have enough faith in their limit orders to bet NO here.

predicted YES

@jskf What are these questionable reasons? I mean I’m literally “questioning the reasons” 😅. I would understand having a higher personal p(doom) but I’m not sure why you’d also bet the rest of the p(doom) market will agree with you, especially when you are personally most of the reason that market isn’t already at 10%. So maybe I’m missing something here.

predicted YES

Oh, since you were asking here I thought your question was mostly about the bet here. I think some of the possible questionable reasons for betting up doom markets are:

  1. A belief that "betting your true beliefs" is honorable.

  2. Failing to understand that if you're right you don't actually win. This one seems very unlikely, though.

  3. Trolling people who expect doom markets will go down because the incentives point in that direction. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain active on Manifold" (or at least longer than you're willing to lock up your mana).

  4. Expectation that people like Catnee will bet the market up even further.

  5. Hope that if the market is high, people will take AI risk more seriously (lmao).

sold Ṁ14 of NO

@jskf @alextes not sure if that analysis holds given @Jelle is actually holding pretty significant NO positions in many AI doom markets, including 3.7k in the 2030 one, at a cost of 21%. Also, their balance can’t cover those 11% limits. I suspect the bet here was a miscalculation or hedge gone bad.

predicted NO

@alextes While the linked market was at ~20% there was an arbitrage of buying NO on the linked market, setting a limit YES order at 11% on the linked market, and betting NO here. Then you win on the linked market if it goes to 10% and you win here if it doesn't. It's pretty easy to miscalculate such bets, but they can work.

predicted YES

@MartinRandall that makes sense, thanks.

It’s quite underpriced now relative to the N/A one

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Who wants to go bet Ṁ264597 on NO?

predicted YES
bought Ṁ30 of YES

Down to 12% now!

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@DylanSlagh What do you mean with "reaches 10%"? From the top or from the bottom? Or exactly 10%?

predicted NO

@CertaintyOfVictory If the displayed value of that market is ever at or below 10% after the creation of this market, this market resolves YES