Resolution criteria

The ECB has scheduled monetary policy meetings on April 30, 2026 and June 11, 2026. The market resolves YES if the ECB cuts any of its three key interest rates (deposit facility rate, main refinancing operations rate, or marginal lending facility rate) at either of these meetings or any unscheduled meeting before June 30, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed via official ECB press releases at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/index.en.html.

Background

As of February 5, 2026, the ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged at 2.00% (deposit facility), 2.15% (main refinancing operations), and 2.40% (marginal lending facility). The last ECB rate cut dates back to June 2025. The ECB's latest projections show headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, revised upward from December projections due to higher energy prices from the Middle East war. Economic growth is expected to average 0.9% in 2026, a downward revision reflecting the war's impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence.

Considerations

As of December 2025, market pricing had shifted significantly upward, with investors pricing out any additional interest rate cut in 2026. Around 85% of economists surveyed by Reuters in January 2026 said the ECB would leave rates unchanged over the rest of 2026. The ECB has stated the Middle East war creates upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth, with medium-term implications depending on the intensity and duration of the conflict and how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.