The June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting is the next Fed decision after the April 28-29 hold. CME FedWatch as of May 4, 2026 shows 96-98% probability of HOLD; Polymarket shows 95.5% NO-cut. March CPI ran 3.26% YoY; Fed has been cautious despite 4 dissenting committee votes for cuts. RESOLVES YES if, at the June 17 FOMC announcement, the Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds target range by 25 basis points or more. Source: Federal Reserve press release. RESOLVES NO if rates are held or raised. A reduction by exactly 25bp counts as YES.