Will Trump be running for president in 2024 as something other than the republican candidate?

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resolved Jul 29

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Will Trump be running as the democratic nominee, an independent candidate, or a third-party candidate in the 2024 elections?

2024 US Presidential Election

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@Duncn Should resolve to NO

Technicality alert: In New York, most candidates are affiliated with multiple parties. In 2020, Trump ran on the ticket of the Republican Party, but also the Conservative Party. Does this resolve yes if that repeats?

Arbitrage available:

predictedYES

Trump Ready To 'Burn It All Down' If He Doesn't Get His Way With GOP: NYT Reporter (msn.com )

I look forward to his chaos. I thought 2024 was very likely to be a DeSantis presidency (even Noah Smith thinks so), but if Trump splits the GOP vote...

Trump Ready To 'Burn It All Down' If He Doesn't Get His Way With GOP: NYT Reporter (msn.com )

I look forward to his chaos. I thought 2024 was all but-a-guaranteed DeSantis presidency, but if Trump splits the GOP vote...

How do you settle this one? Does he need to be on the ballot? Is it enough to be on the ballot in just one state? If he gives up three months before, did it count?

@MP I think that if he is still asking for people to put his name on the ballot, even as a write-in, at the time of the election, that counts.

@Duncan So if Trump is asking one state to put his name on the ballot during election day, this market settles to YES.

@MP Yes. Also, if he is asking his followers to write-in, it resolves to yes (as long as he has bothered to also register as an official candidate).

This requires both (a) Trump losing the primary, and (b) Trump making a terrible strategic decision that throws the election to Democrats, both of which seem pretty unlikely to me.