Will the world population decrease in 2023?
25
closes Dec 31
2%
chance

Get Ṁ500 play money

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StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ20 of NO

Is this market resolved according to this comment, i.e. there has to be at least one week during which population decreases, or does population have to decrease over the whole year?

1 reply
Duncn avatar
Duncn

@StevenK Yes, although since I think this has to be clearly due to a massive disaster on an unprecedented scale, on the off chance that counters are not available (perhaps out of respect to the dead?) and Manifold is still up, I may use broader calculations than a simple counter. E.g., confirmed news stories of "two million dead due to that nuclear war last week" might trigger a resolution. (I would double-check all numbers used in that calculation before resolving though; 2 million a week is a rough guesstimate).