Will monkeypox be renamed?
257
180
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

There are worries that monkeypox is a racist and/or misleading name. Before August 2023, will the BBC.com or NPR.org refer to monkeypox primarily by another name in their front page articles? "Foopox, also known as monkeypox" would count.

Aug 2, 11:41am:

Aug 7, 4:09pm: If a site uses "the Monkeypox virus (MPV)" and then uses MPV elsewhere, including the headline, this would not be sufficient for resolution; "MPV, also known as Monkeypox" would count for a YES resolution.

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Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO

@Predictor I do see this on their front page, and it only uses monkeypox as a term twice, once to define mpox and once in a quote. This resolves YES.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Racist towards monkeys?

The R0 is 0.0001 per male sex partner—even bonbobs aren’t promiscuous enough to catch this. And it basically went away when the “festivals” stopped.

PhillipConstantine avatar
Phillip Constantinepredicted YES

@TomShlomi The description says this isn't enough to resolve. They have to start using mpox as the primary name.

Rederth avatar
Red

@Rederth Already been poster, my bad

Rederth avatar
Red

@Rederth Posted*

a avatar
araebought Ṁ25 of NO

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/11/28/1139403803/who-renames-monkeypox-as-mpox-citing-racist-stigma
NPR seems to still call it monkeypox; the only occurrences of 'mpox' in the article are in reference to the plan to rename it.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ100 of YES

@a Yeah, but there's 8 months to go before the deadline.

NikitaBrancatisano avatar
Nikita Brancatisanobought Ṁ45 of YES

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-use-mpox-monkeypox-2022-11-28/

>The World Health Organization said on Monday it will start using a new preferred term, mpox, as a synonym for the monkeypox disease

Michael avatar
Michaelbought Ṁ200 of YES

The World Health Organization is planning to rename monkeypox, designating it as “MPOX” in an effort to destigmatize the virus that gained a foothold in the U.S. earlier this year, three people with knowledge of the matter told POLITICO.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/22/who-monkeypox-mpox-rename-00070614

TigerLavaLamp avatar
Tiger Lava Lampbought Ṁ10 of YES

CVS uses Orthopoxvirus on their covid booster vaccine survey

pc123 avatar
pc123bought Ṁ50 of NO
ScottLawrence avatar
Scott Lawrencepredicted NO
cos avatar
cospredicted YES
Currently betting under the assumption that BBC or NPR using the proposed "hMPXV" would make this question resolve "YES"
cos avatar
cospredicted YES
Or "MPV" as in the following excerpt: "When you say no sex, you're mischaracterizing that MPV, also known as monkeypox, is a sex-associated transmission, which it can be, but it's not the end all be all." From: https://www.npr.org/2022/07/31/1114670483/monkeypox-messaging-stigma
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES
@cos Same, as I mentioned in my comments on https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-zvi-end-up-writing-3-or-more-p, I'm not too confident predicting the technical details, but I'm sure they'll find a way to SOMEHOW call it something else.
Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO
@cos That's interesting. I want to say if there is a statement like MPV is short for MonkeyPox Virus, then it doesn't count, but if they say it's short for Modern Pox Virus (or similar) it does.
Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO
Or perhaps, using MPV without specifying what it stands for, but that conflicts with the clarification in the market description. I'm open to arguments for which is best.
Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO
Another possibility, which I'm not sure I like as much, would be if the article does not include the clarification "Monkeypox virus (MPV)" at any point.
cos avatar
cossold Ṁ111 of YES
@Duncan I am fleeing from uncertainty. (I had no idea I was carrying so much of the market, lol.)
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ20 of YES
@Duncan The market description says it's whether monkeypox is "referred to by another name." I could see MPV going either way, since it's still short for monkeypox. Is "Dick" the same name as "Richard"? I dunno.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES
"hMPXV" I lean more towards different, because they clearly made a deliberate choice to add the "human" in there.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES
The biggest thing I want confirmation on is I think there's a decent chance they find some esoteric technical justification to refer to it differently, without formally renaming it. Like the switch from AIDs to HIV, or coming up with a name for a specific strain, and then only using the strain names, not the virus name. As I read the market description that would qualify, but I don't want to get burned on a technicality.
Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO
@MichaelWheatley That sort of change would resolve the market as YES. If Monkeypox-beta is referred to simply as Beta (and Monkeypox-alpha is not used or referred to as Alpha), or they use Orthopoxvirus-22, or it is referred to as Acquired Pox Synonym, those would all be YES conditions.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES
@Duncan Great, thanks for that clarification.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted YES

@Duncan How about if there's a switch to "MPV" so thorough and complete that using the word "monkeypox" becomes as much of a faux-pas as calling Covid the "Wuhan Flu"?

Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO

@MichaelWheatley I'm leaning toward the criteria that MPV counts as long as they don't feel the need to clarify what it means.

epiphanie_gedeon avatar
^,^ Épipredicted YES

I feel that if every website refer to monkeypox as "MPV, also known as Monkeypox", then it should resolve YES as per the market description. The market's question is about whether we'll change the denomination, and I think the groups that are trying to rename it for race-related reasons or otherwise would be satisfied if everyone used MPV

Duncn avatar
Duncnpredicted NO

@JoyVoid I'm not sure if they would be satisfied if it was clarified that the M stands for Monkey. However, the market description didn't require that anyone be satisfied (e.g., NPR calling it "the Africa Pox would clearly be a YES result), so that may be a distraction.

My intuition is that "The Monkeypox virus (MPV)" and then using MPV elsewhere, including the headline, is not a renaming, it's just space-saving. But, "MPV, also known as Monkeypox" *is* an attempt at renaming. However, if this type of thing happens it's not necessarily going to happen in such a clear manner, and resolution could be muddy.

However, I would be happy to add that criteria to the market resolution, to at least clarify where I'm coming from.

epiphanie_gedeon avatar
^,^ Épipredicted YES

@Duncan Right. I also don't feel that Monkeypox virus (MPV)" would be a YES, because it feels more like an abbreviation. But if they're presented as two different names, like in "MPV, also known as Monkeypox" I feel this should be a YES since it's using a different name.

Sorry I wasn't clear, I was referring to ""Foopox, also known as monkeypox" would count." when I mentioned the market's resolution criteria.