Will Zvi end up writing 3 or more posts whose titles include the word Monkeypox in 2022?
Basic
81
Ṁ11k
resolved Dec 23
Resolved
NO
This will get resolved early to no if I (1) remember to do so and (2) it is clear that it's not going to happen, and early to yes if it happens.
#Monkeypox
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I am highly confident that we are done here. Resolving to NO.

getting out while the getting is non-horrible.

Selling to cover, although I think 40% is the correct number. I think the bulk of outstanding risk is around a postmortem post.

I'm interested in how this market might be negatively disincentivizing Zvi from writing another monkeypox post, as he might hope the Y/N answer to this market correlates with "how serious was monkeypox". In that way he might want to reward people who (correctly) predicted monkeypox was overblown by the "mainstream" media.

Time for me to sell on this one. Updates leading to this conclusion:

(1) name change is still on slow simmer, but appears to be getting closer

(2) case rates stablizing with low transmission into other populations outside of MSM...pointing to a very high threshold of level of physical contact for transmission

(3) similarly to (2), in terms of VERY low incidental transmission to children. I had assigned about 70% probability that there would be SOME low level of transmission to, or even between, children...and conditional on that would certainly cause panic school closures (and would be something to write about)...but even low level transmission within children does not appear to be a thing that is happening

(4) similarly on transmission rates staying lower in other large populations outside of western countries than I thought would be likely. For example, there are still vanishingly small number of cases in India. I overestimated probability of spread into that population...following the model of how Covid eventually took off in India. Seems that what I missed was the very high threshold of level of physical contact for transmission, so the India pattern for Monkeypox seems to be a better match for how HIV/AIDS rates stayed low there vs how Covid spread throughout the population.

(5) as long as Monkeypox stays contained to mostly MSM population allowing control through targeted vaccinations and other interventions, then there is nothing new for Zvi to write about and would stay as "the dog that didn't bark"

predictedNO
Why is this market so high? I only see two monkeypox posts
predictedYES
@ahalekelly Adrian - this Market question is structured around two dimensions...first, measuring the underlying potential that Monkeypox would develop into a big deal that would elevate it to a new tope for Zvi to post about, and second whether there would be a name change before the third post with "Monkeypox" in the title. If you have reasons to believe either of these (or something else!) will resolve the question to "NO", then please please please place Bets on "NO". That is the purpose of these Markets...to aggregate and reveal information! Here are reasons I see for why the Market is currently so high to "YES": (1) The name "Monkeypox" has stickiness. https://www.statnews.com/2022/08/01/the-campaign-to-rename-monkeypox-gets-complicated/ At the time of their June meeting, one of the primary concerns of the WHO was that people would associate Monkeypox its origin in Africa. As it became clear that spread of Monkeypox outside of endemic African countries was predominantlty through the MSM population, there was a shift from concerns over racism to concern about stigmatizing the MSM population. (2) We crossed the transition from "Under Control" to "OMG Exponential Growth!" https://twitter.com/vb_jens/status/1372251931444350976 (3) Other than just the number of cases, there is a potential for this to jump populations and to spread broadly in children. That would have consequences, for example in the US and other developed countries I'm sure that would lead to a strong fear-driven response by parents and Public Health...even if the actual risk to children remains relatively low. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-29/as-monkeypox-spreads-kids-can-get-monkeypox-too (4) Epidemiologic data availability is concentrated around case numbers and mostly in western developed countries as would be expected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak This leaves a serious blind spot to understanding the overall situation, for example,
predictedYES
This leaves a serious blind spot to understanding the overall situation, for example, is Monkeypox spreading more broadly in India than what available data show? (wikipedia case count for India is currently at 5... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-62344928). What about in endemic west and central African countries? Is the disease spreading differently there over the past several months? These holes in epidemiologic data availability increase the uncertainty about the outreak trajectory and global consequences. (5) and the timing of the jump to "YES" coincides to "Monkeypox Post#2", so it seems the Market in general agrees with Meatloaf ;) [correction to first paragraph above "a big deal that would elevate it to a new *topic* for Zvi to post about"]
If anything, 19 chance out of 20 seems low, i would be shocked if zvi does not end up writing another article
predictedYES
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fp9fcyK8weYcyqjNK/monkeypox-post-2
Selling in part because of relatively high risk of name change and not sure how the market would resolve in that case.
I'm seeing an additional out wherein by the time it's gotten serious enough for a third post, they've given it a more respectable-sounding name, like they did with the "Wuhan flu."
@MichaelWheatley I don’t think they tend to rename -pox viruses to something more respectable sounding. Smallpox, cowpox, sheeppox, camelpox, horsepox raccoonpox, skunkpox, goatpox, etc etc are all not renamed as far as I can tell. Also, it seems way too late to rename it, even if they wanted to I think? I don’t remember COVID being officially named wuhan flu ever either
predictedNO
@BionicD0LPH1N I think all those names would come under scrutiny if they started infecting large numbers of humans. Well except for smallpox, but that's because its the only one without a dopey animal in its name. Having an official name doesn't usually stop people from renaming things. What can be named can be renamed. I could also see them coming up with a name for just this specific strain and telling people to use that instead. The key thing is that I guarantee you behind the scenes there's a lot of pressure for better nomenclature, from people who don't want to have to read, write or publish the phrase "gay man with monkeypox," one more time than they already have.
predictedYES
@BionicD0LPH1N To be fair, the renaming from "British variants", "South-affrican variants", etc... to alpha, beta, delta, etc was pretty much seamless. But I think that Monkeypox doesn't really have a reason to be renamed, -pox viruses sound scary because of their association with smallpox
predictedNO
@JoyVoid I had the opposite intuition and counted that as a point in favor: with Covid, it seems like there was a deliberate effort to avoid scary-sounding names. Otherwise they could have emphasized the SARS of SARS-CoV-2, instead of the CoV.
Seems like base rate for this sort of thing becoming a big thing can't be as high as 20% so I bought no.
@Shiney Even if it doesn't become a big thing, I'd be surprised he doesn't. He's been posting about the china situation, nuclear risks with Russia, the Ukraine war, shortages, etc... Even if it doesn't become a big thing, I posit it will continue to grow enough and new updates will trickle in enough that two other posts be made about it.
predictedNO
@JoyVoid Yeah maybe I've misjudged this...

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