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Selling to cover, although I think 40% is the correct number. I think the bulk of outstanding risk is around a postmortem post.
I'm interested in how this market might be negatively disincentivizing Zvi from writing another monkeypox post, as he might hope the Y/N answer to this market correlates with "how serious was monkeypox". In that way he might want to reward people who (correctly) predicted monkeypox was overblown by the "mainstream" media.
Time for me to sell on this one. Updates leading to this conclusion:
(1) name change is still on slow simmer, but appears to be getting closer
(2) case rates stablizing with low transmission into other populations outside of MSM...pointing to a very high threshold of level of physical contact for transmission
(3) similarly to (2), in terms of VERY low incidental transmission to children. I had assigned about 70% probability that there would be SOME low level of transmission to, or even between, children...and conditional on that would certainly cause panic school closures (and would be something to write about)...but even low level transmission within children does not appear to be a thing that is happening
(4) similarly on transmission rates staying lower in other large populations outside of western countries than I thought would be likely. For example, there are still vanishingly small number of cases in India. I overestimated probability of spread into that population...following the model of how Covid eventually took off in India. Seems that what I missed was the very high threshold of level of physical contact for transmission, so the India pattern for Monkeypox seems to be a better match for how HIV/AIDS rates stayed low there vs how Covid spread throughout the population.
(5) as long as Monkeypox stays contained to mostly MSM population allowing control through targeted vaccinations and other interventions, then there is nothing new for Zvi to write about and would stay as "the dog that didn't bark"