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71% chance. Latest version of NASA's Gistemp Land ocean Temperature index (LOTI) will be used. This is currently v4 available at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/T_AIRS/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv The formula will be capped at 0 and 100 as the claim cannot be resolved outside this range. If necessary, the anomalies are to be converted to 0.01C amounts. Examples July 2023 120 August 2023 110 September 2023 105 Then 120+110+105-270=65 so the claim resolves with PROB = 65% July 2023 140 August 2023 130 September 2023 120 Then 140+130+120-270=120 which is above 100 so the claim is capped and resolves with PROB = 100% In the csv file, temperature anomalies are reported in degree C rather than 0.01C amounts eg 1.20C for March 2023. If reported in this format then the anomaly of 1.20 would be multiplied by 100 to convert to 0.01C amounts so 120 would be used in the formula.

55% chance. Data is latest version of Gisstemp LOTI (land ocean temperature index). This is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv if you prefer csv file. January to May 2023 were not hottest for those months but June 2023 was. So it may seem that 7*14=98 is the highest possible value. However it is not impossible that the numbers get revised so theoretically possible for it to be 8 months or more in which case the maximum will be capped at 100% because cannot resolve at more than that.