What will be the cause of the next declared WHO "global health emergency"? | Manifold

What will be the cause of the next declared WHO "global health emergency"?

Basic

13

Ṁ411

resolved Aug 14

100%56%

Monkeypox

0.0%

A new variant of Covid

18%

An Ebola outbreak

0.0%

Killer robots

7%

Influenza

0.1%

Polio

0.1%

Pokérus

0.0%

Zika, again

0.0%

A severe form of malaria

0.0%

Chikungunya

4%

H5N1

13%Other

The World Health Organization will declare a 'public health emergency of international concern' in cases where risk of international spread of disease is particularly high. The last four emergencies were caused by the Zika virus (2016), Kivu Ebola (2020), COVID-19 (2020), and Monkeypox (2022). What will cause the next one?

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I closed this (rather than just trading on it) because I'm pretty sure the answer is Mpox, but I think it's boring for the resolver to just take all the alpha (especially if a mod)

It could be Ebola soon: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127461

パンプ。

@Duncan In much the same way as WHO not declaring that gain of function research is a public health emergency.

I'm still deciding whether AI should be listed separate from those two. I suppose AI is not a proximate cause in the same way 'bots are.

@MartinRandall I think that I will consider nanobots and robots to be different for the purposes of this market.

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