What will be the cause of the next declared WHO "global health emergency"?

Mini

13

Ṁ412

resolved Aug 14

1D

1W

1M

ALL

100%56%

Monkeypox

0.0%

A new variant of Covid

18%

An Ebola outbreak

0.0%

Killer robots

7%

Influenza

0.1%

Polio

0.1%

Pokérus

0.0%

Zika, again

0.0%

A severe form of malaria

0.0%

Chikungunya

4%

H5N1

13%Other

The World Health Organization will declare a 'public health emergency of international concern' in cases where risk of international spread of disease is particularly high. The last four emergencies were caused by the Zika virus (2016), Kivu Ebola (2020), COVID-19 (2020), and Monkeypox (2022). What will cause the next one?

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I closed this (rather than just trading on it) because I'm pretty sure the answer is Mpox, but I think it's boring for the resolver to just take all the alpha (especially if a mod)

It could be Ebola soon: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1127461

パンプ。

@Duncan In much the same way as WHO not declaring that gain of function research is a public health emergency.

I'm still deciding whether AI should be listed separate from those two. I suppose AI is not a proximate cause in the same way 'bots are.

@MartinRandall I think that I will consider nanobots and robots to be different for the purposes of this market.

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Will WHO declare a global health emergency not directly based on epidemic concerns by 2030?

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?

Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?

Will the WHO declare a public health emergency of international concern over strep A in 2024?

In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?

Will the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?

Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?

Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before the end of 2040?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

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Will WHO declare a global health emergency not directly based on epidemic concerns by 2030?

Will the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?

Will a new pandemic caused by a currently unknown virus be declared by the World Health Organization by 2030?

Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?

Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?

Will the WHO declare a public health emergency of international concern over strep A in 2024?

Will the WHO declare another pandemic before the end of 2040?

In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?