Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at least one U.S. cabinet‑level official is or was acting as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government, and that this fact is credibly established before January 1st 2040.

For the purposes of this market:

• “U.S. cabinet‑level official” means a person serving as:

  • A Senate‑confirmed head of an executive department (e.g., Secretary of State, Defense, Army, etc.), or

  • Any other official formally granted cabinet rank by the President at the time of the relevant conduct.

• “Strong evidence” requires at least one of the following:

  1. A criminal conviction or guilty plea in a court of law for espionage, acting as an agent of a foreign power, or a closely related offense where the Russian Federation is explicitly identified as the foreign government; or

  2. An official public finding or statement by a major U.S. governmental body (for example, the Department of Justice, an intelligence oversight committee, or a court) that the official acted as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government.
     
     

The above must clearly identify the person as having acted on behalf of the Russian state or its intelligence services, beyond normal diplomatic or policy engagement.

The market does not resolve YES based solely on:

• Partisan accusations, op‑eds, or commentary pieces.

• Anonymous leaks or single‑source investigative reports without corroboration and without any of the official actions described above.

• Actions that merely appear “pro‑Russia” in policy terms without explicit findings of covert agency.
  
  

If more than one official meets the criteria, a single confirmed case is sufficient for a YES resolution.

If, by January 1st 2040, no U.S. cabinet‑level official satisfies the above standard, this market resolves NO.

If there is serious ambiguity (e.g., conflicting official statements, sealed or partially classified findings, or unclear charges), the market creator will resolve based on what they judge to be the best good‑faith interpretation of these criteria, ideally after explaining their reasoning in the comments.