Background

Donald Trump's first term was marked by significant turnover in government positions and concerns about national security. During his presidency, Trump fired numerous inspectors general and other officials, some of which were later ruled unlawful by federal courts. His approach to the intelligence community and federal workforce has raised concerns among national security experts.

For his second term, Trump has indicated plans for significant restructuring of federal agencies, particularly intelligence organizations like the CIA. There have been discussions about potential workforce reductions and changes to personnel policies that could affect national security operations.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if during Donald Trump's second presidential term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029):

1. A U.S. government employee is fired or forced to resign from their position, AND

2. That same individual is subsequently publicly exposed or officially identified as having engaged in espionage activities on behalf of a foreign country.

The market will resolve as NO if:

• Trump's second term ends without any government employee being both fired and exposed as a foreign spy, OR

• A government employee is exposed as a spy but was not fired during Trump's second term, OR

• A government employee is fired but not exposed as a foreign spy.

Considerations

This market concerns hypothetical future events that have not occurred. The resolution will depend on credible public reporting or official government statements confirming both the firing and the espionage activities. Mere allegations or unsubstantiated claims will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.