Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.

Resolution criteria

1. What counts as a declaration?

   • A clear, public statement (speech, press release, published interview, or official post on a verified social‑media account) asserting that humanity has created an artificial intelligence with capabilities broadly equal to—or exceeding—those of an average human across most cognitive domains.

   • Mere claims of “powerful AI,” “superintelligence on the horizon,” or marketing hype do not suffice; the speaker must explicitly confirm that AGI already exists.

2. Evidence standard

   • The statement must be widely reported by reliable news outlets, appear in official transcripts, or be available as recorded video/audio.

   • If there is doubt about authenticity, the market creator will wait for mainstream journalistic verification or an official denial.

3. Timing and priority

   • The first qualifying declaration—by either Donald Trump or the Pope—determines the outcome.

   • If Trump declares AGI first ⇒ YES.

   • If the Pope declares AGI first ⇒ NO.

4. Edge cases

   • Trump dies before making a qualifying declaration ⇒ NO.

   • Current Pope dies: the question remains open; the succeeding Pope’s declarations are considered.

   • Both survive but no qualifying declaration by 23:59 UTC on 31 Dec 2060 ⇒ N/A (market resolves “void / NA”).

   • Simultaneous or near‑simultaneous declarations (within 24 hours): market resolves N/A unless one statement can be definitively shown to precede the other.

5. Clarifications

   • Artificial General Intelligence here refers to an AI system that can match or surpass average human performance across a wide range of intellectual tasks without domain‑specific retraining.

   • The Pope refers to the head of the Roman Catholic Church in office at the moment of declaration. Emeritus or retired Popes are not counted.

Deadline

This market will only resolve YES or NO before 31 December 2060. After that deadline passes this question resolves as N/A.