Resolve YES if, on January 1, 2030 (UTC), the sum of 30‑day Monthly Active Users (MAU) for apps/services whose users’ primary accounts are hosted on AT Protocol infrastructure (e.g., Bluesky, plus any other atproto apps/PDSs) is strictly greater than the sum of 30‑day MAU for apps/services whose users’ primary accounts are hosted on ActivityPub/Fediverse infrastructure (e.g., Mastodon, Threads’ ActivityPub‑enabled userbase, Pixelfed, PeerTube, Lemmy, etc.). Otherwise NO.
Key definitions & counting rules
MAU = unique accounts active in the 30 days ending Jan 1, 2030, per each provider’s standard definition (posting, liking, replying, or other “active” signal as the provider defines it).
Primary account / no double counting: If a single person is reachable on both protocols via bridges or cross‑posting, count them only where their account originates (the protocol that hosts their identity and data).
Threads & partial federation: Count only Threads users for whom two‑way ActivityPub interaction (post/like/reply) is enabled on Jan 1, 2030. If Threads has not enabled two‑way federation for a given user, that user is not included in the Fediverse MAU total.
What’s “AT Protocol MAU”? All users with atproto DIDs/handles whose activity is natively propagated via atproto (e.g., Bluesky app, other atproto clients/services such as long‑form or video apps that publish to the atproto network).
What’s “Fediverse MAU”? All users whose home accounts are on ActivityPub servers (Mastodon and other Fediverse apps, plus any portion of Threads that is two‑way federated for those users).
Bots & spam: Exclude if the source reports them separately; otherwise accept provider‑reported MAU.
Time window & reporting lag: Resolution uses the best public data available for the 30‑day window ending Jan 1, 2030. If providers publish official MAU after that date, this market may wait up to 60 days for those figures. If multiple credible sources disagree, prefer more recent official disclosures over older or third‑party estimates.
Secondary tie‑breakers (only if primary MAU is unavailable for one or both sides):
7‑day active users or DAU scaled to MAU using the provider’s disclosed ratio;
Active account counts from reputable ecosystem dashboards (e.g., server crawlers) aligned to the same 30‑day window;
Aggregate daily post volume across the network averaged over the same 30‑day period.
If after applying tie‑breakers the totals are still indeterminate or within ±5%, resolve NO.
Scope & edge cases
If one protocol is sunset or merges into the other before Jan 1, 2030, count users by the protocol actually carrying their identity and messages on that date.
Bridges that mirror posts do not move a user into the other protocol’s total unless the user’s home account has moved.
This is protocol‑level, not app‑brand: it aggregates across all apps/servers on each protocol.
Allowed sources (non‑exhaustive):
Official company blog posts/press releases, investor disclosures, app transparency reports, reputable tech press, and widely used network dashboards or crawlers. When sources disagree by >10% for the same period, prefer the newest official figure; when only third‑party estimates exist, use at least two independent sources.
1,000