Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Viktor Orbán is officially sworn in or appointed as Prime Minister of Hungary at any point during the calendar year 2030 (January 1, 2030, to December 31, 2030, inclusive).

This market resolves to NO if the year 2030 ends and Viktor Orbán has not been officially appointed or sworn in as Prime Minister of Hungary.

If the next Hungarian parliamentary election is postponed beyond December 31, 2030, and Orbán does not become Prime Minister within the year 2030, the market will still resolve to NO.

The official Hungarian Gazette (Magyar Közlöny) and reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC News) will serve as the primary sources of truth.

Background

In the April 2026 Hungarian general election, Péter Magyar and his pro-European, center-right Tisza Party achieved a landslide supermajority, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year consecutive tenure.

In June 2026, the newly elected Hungarian Parliament passed the Sixteenth Amendment to the Fundamental Law. This amendment limits prime ministers to a cumulative maximum of eight years in office, calculated retroactively from 1990 onwards. Having already served 20 years as Prime Minister (1998–2002 and 2010–2026), Orbán is constitutionally barred from returning to the office under the current legal framework.

The next parliamentary election is scheduled for spring 2030. For Orbán to return as Prime Minister, his Fidesz party would likely need to regain a supermajority to repeal or amend these term limits.