Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Steve Bannon officially files to run for President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle or publicly announces his candidacy by November 7, 2028.

Official filing entails the submission of a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2) with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). An announcement constitutes an explicit public declaration by Bannon himself indicating that he is actively running for president in 2028, confirmed by major consensus reporting (e.g., AP, Reuters, The New York Times, or The Wall Street Journal).

If Bannon only forms an exploratory committee or is nominated as a running mate for vice president without declaring a presidential run, this will not satisfy resolution as YES. If he does not officially file or announce his candidacy by the end of Election Day on November 7, 2028, this market resolves to NO.

Background

Steve Bannon, former White House Chief Strategist and host of the War Room podcast, has long been a central figure in right-wing populist politics. Bannon has frequently discussed the 2028 presidential race on his show and in interviews, repeatedly suggesting theories regarding a third term for Donald Trump while also occasionally being floated by commentators as an ideological standard-bearer within the MAGA movement.