Resolution criteria

This market evaluates event cancellations of major in-person comic conventions (such as San Diego Comic-Con, New York Comic Con, WonderCon, C2E2, or conventions attracting over 50,000 attendees) occurring between market creation and December 31, 2029.

Past cancellations prior to market creation (such as 2020–2021 COVID-19 cancellations) do not count toward resolution. Postponements or rescheduling within the same calendar year do not count as cancellations unless the organizer officially cancels that year's edition entirely.

Each option resolves independently based on official statements from organizers or reporting from reputable news organizations:

• Yes, all in-person comic cons proceed as scheduled throughout the 2020s: Resolves YES if no major in-person comic convention is cancelled through December 31, 2029. Resolves NO if any major convention is cancelled.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to a pandemic: Resolves YES if at least one major convention is officially cancelled due to an epidemic, pandemic, or public health outbreak.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to severe weather/natural disaster: Resolves YES if cancelled due to severe weather events (e.g., hurricanes, severe storms) or natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes, floods).

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to financial insolvency: Resolves YES if cancelled due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or financial default of the organizing company.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to security or safety concerns: Resolves YES if cancelled due to direct security threats, active safety hazards, or law enforcement orders regarding threat conditions.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to venue-related issues (e.g., construction or renovation): Resolves YES if cancelled due to venue unavailability, structural issues, or renovation/construction delays.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to labor strikes or union disputes: Resolves YES if cancelled due to labor strikes, union walkouts, or labor disputes affecting venue or convention staff.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to government-mandated emergency restrictions not related to pandemics: Resolves YES if cancelled due to official government decrees, curfews, or emergency declarations unrelated to public health epidemics.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to technical infrastructure failure: Resolves YES if cancelled due to major utility, power grid, telecommunication, or critical venue infrastructure failure.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to supply chain disruptions: Resolves YES if cancelled due to material supply chain collapses preventing setup, equipment, or staging delivery.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to sudden loss of major sponsor or funding: Resolves YES if cancelled due to immediate withdrawal of key corporate sponsorship or private capital funding.

• No, at least one major in-person comic con is cancelled due to anything or any other disruptions: Resolves YES if at least one major convention is cancelled for any reason after market creation through December 31, 2029.

If the primary cause of a cancellation is disputed or multifaceted, resolution will defer to the official rationale given in the organizer's public cancellation announcement.

Background

Major comic conventions—including San Diego Comic-Con (SDCC), New York Comic Con (NYCC), WonderCon, and C2E2—are multi-day pop-culture events that draw tens to hundreds of thousands of attendees annually. While physical conventions returned to full operations following widespread disruptions in 2020–2021, large-scale events remain exposed to operational risks including venue availability, labor movements, severe weather, and financial volatility.