Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the candidate certified by the Michigan Board of State Canvassers as the winner of the 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan (Class II seat).

• Primary Source: Official election certification published by the Michigan Secretary of State.

• Consensus Call: In the event of an uncontested result or widely acknowledged projection prior to official state certification, the market may resolve early based on a consensus projection from major media decision desks (such as the Associated Press). If the race is contested, recounts are underway, or legal challenges are pending, resolution will wait until official certification.

• Other: If any candidate not listed among the market options wins the certified election, this market will resolve to "Other".

Background

The Class II U.S. Senate seat in Michigan is up for election on November 3, 2026. Incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters announced he would not seek a third term, leaving an open seat in a major swing state.

The primary elections held on August 4, 2026, set the matchup for the general election:

• Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat): Former Wayne County health director and progressive candidate who won a competitive primary against Representative Haley Stevens.

• Mike Rogers (Republican): Former U.S. Representative and former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, who secured the Republican nomination.

• Third-party and minor-party candidates qualified for the general election ballot include Douglas P. Marsh (Green Party), Lydia Christensen (Libertarian Party), and Timothy Long (U.S. Taxpayers Party).