Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on when the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) political movement is widely considered to have dissolved or ceased to exist as a major faction in American politics.

Since "MAGA" is an informal movement rather than a single corporate entity, resolution will be determined by the market creator using the following guidelines:

• Consensus Reporting: A broad consensus among major reputable news and analysis outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal) that the MAGA movement has dissolved, been fully retired, or been entirely superseded by another political movement.

• Polling Metric: National polling from reputable pollsters (e.g., YouGov, Gallup, Pew Research) showing that the share of Republicans identifying as "MAGA Republicans" has fallen below 5% (down from historical peaks of 50–60%).

• PAC Termination: The official termination and dissolution of the primary pro-Trump Super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc. (or any direct successor organization), with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), without any equivalent MAGA-branded successor taking its place.

Additional Rules:

• The market will resolve to the calendar year (or range) in which these criteria are clearly met.

• If the movement is still active and recognized as a major political force after December 31, 2040, the option "Never dissolves" will resolve YES, and all other options will resolve NO.

• As an INDEPENDENT_MULTIPLE_CHOICE market, only the option corresponding to the correct timeframe of dissolution will resolve YES, while all other options will resolve NO.

Background

The "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement began during Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and has since grown into the dominant faction of the modern Republican Party. A YouGov poll in early 2026 indicated that roughly 60% of Republicans self-identified as "MAGA". Because the movement is heavily centered around the personal brand and leadership of Donald Trump, political analysts frequently debate whether the movement will survive past his active political career (with his second presidential term ending in January 2029), or whether a successor (such as JD Vance) will successfully inherit and maintain the brand.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.