Finding Satoshi (2026) | Pre-Order Now | Who Created Bitcoin?
This market is about the upcoming documentary "Finding Satoshi" by William D. Cohan and Tyler Maroney, which plans to release on April 22, 2026 at 6 AM PST (Website linked above). The documentary claims that "The greatest financial mystery of the 21st century ends on 4/22," and that it will "put to rest" all "questions and concerns" around Satoshi Nakamoto's identity. Will it?
I will resolve this market to either YES or NO based on whether I think the documentary makes a case for Satoshi Nakamoto strong enough to cause a general consensus agreeing with the documentary's findings. I will try to resolve this more on general consensus rather than personal opinion, but some subjectivity is inevitable. If there are many unknowns surrounding details of the documentary, or there if the resolution is otherwise unclear, I may wait up to a month before resolution.
If the documentary is delayed, I will extend the market close time. If the documentary is canceled, this market will resolve NO.
Because the resolution involves a significant amount of subjectivity, I will not bet on this market.
Some example cases:
The documentary is immediately discredited and is made up of extremely dubious evidence -> Resolves NO
The documentary only aggregates already known information into a credible but far from proven case for their candidate -> Resolves NO
The documentary provides some surprising new evidence that causes the general consensus to agree that the documentary's claim that a person or group of people is definitively Satoshi -> Resolves YES
Same as above, but some small unreasonable segment still thinks it is Craig Wright -> Still Resolves YES
The documentary provides some surprising new evidence, but its strength is hotly debated, and there is no immediate general consensus around the documentary -> I will wait to resolve until the there is a general consensus either way. If it has been a month since the documentary's release and there still is no general consensus, I will resolve NO.
The documentary doesn't really provide an answer or says it's unsolvable -> Resolves NO
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@traders I’ll wait like another day in case things change, but I’m about ready to resolve this NO under the “The documentary only aggregates already known information into a credible but far from proven case for their candidate” case. Adam Back disagreed with the doc after viewing, and most of the discussion from people who have seen the doc think it’s not conclusive, and AFAIK it doesn’t use any crazy new information but rather just builds a case using known information. However, if anybody wants to provide a case for YES feel free to comment.
@traders Resolving this to NO in a few hours unless somebody wants to present an argument otherwise.