Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" if the U.S. regular all formulations retail gasoline price, as reported by the American Automobile Association (AAA), averages falls below $4.00 per gallon at any point during May 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO".

The determination will be based on the Daily average retail gasoline price data provided by AAA. The official data can be found at: https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Background

The U.S. average retail price of gasoline is influenced by factors including global crude oil prices, refinery capacity, seasonal demand patterns, and federal or state taxes. In May, prices are often affected by the transition to summer-grade gasoline blends, which can be more expensive to produce. As of April 2026, historical trends and seasonal volatility remain key considerations for forecasting May prices.