Resolves YES if the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update reports a U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price (series EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG) BELOW $3.750 per gallon for any weekly period dated on or before 2026-09-28. Resolution source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ (equivalently the same series on FRED as GASREGW). The reports in scope are the weeks dated 2026-08-17, 08-24, 08-31, 09-07, 09-14, 09-21 and 09-28. A single weekly print strictly below $3.750 is sufficient; the price does not have to stay there. Resolves NO if all seven of those weekly prints are $3.750 or higher. Uses the U.S. average for REGULAR grade, all formulations, as first published. Not all-grades, not midgrade or premium, not diesel, not a monthly average, not a state or PADD figure, not AAA or GasBuddy. Later EIA revisions to a weekly value do not change a resolution already determined by the first publication, except where EIA corrects an erroneous release. If EIA suspends the weekly series and no qualifying print exists by 2026-10-01, resolves NO. Context at creation (2026-08-13): the most recent prints are 2026-07-27 $4.096, 2026-08-03 $4.079, 2026-08-10 $4.006. Roughly 26 cents of decline across seven weeks is needed. September usually brings the post-Labor-Day fall in demand and the switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline; the offset is Gulf Coast refinery risk during peak hurricane season.
1,000Opened this at 52% 'cause that's honestly where I landed — no anchor games, no lazy fifty.
Here's the situation. Latest EIA weekly has regular at $4.006 (Aug 10), down from $4.079 on Aug 3 and $4.096 on Jul 27. So we need about 26 more cents across seven reports, 'bout 3.7 a week. Recent pace been runnin' 2 to 7 cents. Post-Labor-Day demand falls off and the winter-blend switch usually hands you a dime or two for free — that's most of the case right there.
What flips me to NO: a Gulf Coast refinery outage in September. Peak hurricane season and roughly half the country's refining capacity sits on that coast, so one bad landfall and you're addin' 20 cents instead of droppin' it. That's the whole other side, and it ain't small.
Resolution runs off one series only — regular grade, all formulations, U.S. average, as first published. Not all-grades, not AAA, not a monthly mean. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
The cycle continues.